State of Origin - Game 1 Preview & Best Bets🏉

What is the State of Origin Series?

The State of Origin is an annual best-of-three rugby league series contested between the two Australian state representative teams:

Queensland Maroons (QLD) & New South Wales Blues (NSW)

Australia’s Greatest Sporting Rivalry

Often hailed as “Australian sport’s greatest rivalry”, the series ignites fierce interstate pride and rivalry that transcends sport. Origin showcases elite-level rugby league, with players selected based on their state of origin - where they first played senior rugby league - rather than where they currently play professionally.

📺 Popularity & Cultural Significance

• Massive TV viewership: Consistently ranks among the highest-rated programs on Australian television each year.
• Sold-out stadiums: Games routinely fill major venues like Suncorp Stadium (Brisbane, QLD) and Accor Stadium (Sydney, NSW), as well as one neutral ground across Australia per year.
• Pinnacle of the sport: Origin is widely regarded as the highest standard of rugby league, often outshining even international competitions in intensity and quality.

🏆 Format & Legacy

• Three-game series each year, usually held across May, June, and July.
• Series winner is the first to claim two victories.
• First match was played in 1980, making 2025 the 45th anniversary of Origin football.
• The series serves as both a showcase of the game’s best talent and a cultural institution in Australian sport.

🗓 Match Details

• Fixture: QLD Maroons (home) vs. NSW Blues (away)
• Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2025
• Time: 10:05 AM (UTC)
• Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Broadcast: WatchNRL

📋 Coaches

• Blues: Laurie Daley
• Maroons: Billy Slater
• Previous Series: Blues won 2-1 in 2024

📊 Historical Head-to-Head (as of 2024)

• Total Series: 43 (from 1982 to 2024)
  • Queensland: 24 series wins
  • New South Wales: 17 series wins
  • Drawn series: 2 (1999, 2002)
• Game Wins (approximate as of end 2024):
  • Queensland: 68 wins
  • New South Wales: 58 wins

Queensland holds the historical edge, especially due to their dominant run from 2006–2013 (8 straight series wins), but NSW has been more competitive in recent years.

🏆 State of Origin – Last 5 Series (2020–2024)

2024 New South Wales 2-1

2023 Queensland 2-1

2022 Queensland 2-1

2021 New South Wales 2-1

2020 Queensland 2-1

🏟 Team Line-ups – Game I

🔴 Queensland Maroons

• Fullback: Kalyn Ponga
• Wingers: Xavier Coates, Valentine Holmes
• Centres: Robert Toia, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
• Halves: Daly Cherry-Evans (Captain), Mitchell Moses
• Props: Moeaki Fotuaika, Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
• Hooker: Harry Grant
• Second Row: Reuben Cotter, Jeremiah Nanai
• Lock: Patrick Carrigan
• Interchange: Tom Dearden, Lindsay Collins, Beau Fermor, Trent Loiero

🔵 New South Wales Blues

• Fullback: Dylan Edwards
• Wingers: Brian To'o, Zac Lomax
• Centres: Stephen Crichton, Latrell Mitchell
• Halves: Cameron Munster (5/8), Nathan Cleary (7)
• Props: Mitchell Barnett, Payne Haas
• Hooker: Reece Robson
• Second Row: Liam Martin, Angus Crichton
• Lock: Isaah Yeo (Captain)
• Interchange: Connor Watson, Spencer Leniu, Hudson Young, Max King (Debut)

🧩 Key Match-Ups & Tactical Narratives

💥 Forward Battle

• NSW Pack: Dynamic and high-impact with aggression from Martin, Crichton, Haas
• Queensland Pack: Workmanlike but steady; Carrigan, Nanai adds flair and the Origin return for Tino Fa'asuamaleaui

⚖️ Halves Comparison

• NSW: Cleary + Moses - elite combo, both in-form, tactical masters
• QLD: Munster + Cherry-Evans - experience-heavy but form-wavering; DCE is the X-factor, potentially vulnerable

🎯 Centres & Backs

• NSW: Mitchell & Crichton - explosive, creative, Origin-hardened
• QLD: Tabuai-Fidow (The Hammer) + debutant Toia - potential mismatch unless Toia rises to the occasion

🔄 Interchange Bench

• Even battle overall
  • NSW: More “impact” with Spencer Leniu, Hudson Young
  • QLD: Solid and reliable in Fermor, Loiero, fire from Lindsay Collins
  • Dummy Half Battle: Watson’s experience vs. Dearden’s Origin spark

🧪 Intangibles & X-Factors

• Queensland’s resilience and historic ability to rally as underdogs
• NSW’s returning stars (Cleary, Mitchell) add both power and composure
• Mental edge: Queensland hurting after 2024 decider loss at home
• Crowd influence: Suncorp is a fortress but NSW’s record there is better than expected

💰Best Bets

• QLD +2.5 Handicap - $1.90
• Total Points UNDER 39.5 - $1.90
• Any Time Try Scorer - Latrell Mitchell - $2.30
• Any Time Try Scorer - Valentine Holmes - $2.33

Find all of our State of Origin Game 1 markets here

Odds are accurate as of 2am UTC, 26th May 2025

🏁 Final Word

This is a classic set-up: NSW on paper look stronger in every department, but Queensland’s spirit, especially at home, can never be underestimated. Injuries, returning stars, and coaching mind games all set the stage for a dramatic opener.

Prediction trends suggest a Game I win almost certainly determines the series - so expect fireworks from the very first whistle.

Let me know if you’d like:

• A printable team sheet
• Player profiles
• Live updates during the match
• Social media-ready graphics or previews

📅 Full Series Schedule

• Game I: May 28 - Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
• Game II: June 18 - Optus Stadium, Perth
• Game III: July 9 - Accor Stadium, Sydney

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