🔵⚡🔴 State of Origin 2025 Game 3 Preview
Date: Wednesday, July 9
Time: 8:05pm AEST (12:05pm UTC)
Venue: Accor Stadium, Sydney
Series: Tied 1-1
🧠 Game 2 Recap: Maroons Steal One in Perth
Game 2 of the 2025 Origin series delivered a classic Queensland ambush in Perth. The Maroons stormed out of the blocks, dominating yardage and capitalising on NSW errors, leading 26-6 at halftime. Despite a spirited Blues fightback in the second half, they fell just short, losing 26-24.
Interestingly, Queensland had just 45% possession and completed at only 66%, compared to NSW's 70%. But the Maroons made the most of their chances. Statistically, the teams were almost neck-and-neck in line breaks and missed tackles.
💡 Game 3 Insight & Prediction
🟦 Tip: New South Wales to Win
The Blues enter Game 3 as deserved favourites. Despite playing well in patches in the first two matches, they’re still hunting for a full 80-minute performance. Their second-half resurgence in Game 2 showed they can turn the tide quickly.
Key Advantage: The centre pairing. NSW’s Latrell Mitchell and Stephen Crichton hold a clear edge over Queensland’s Gehamat Shibasaki and Robert Toia, and Laurie Daley's men will likely aim to exploit this matchup early.
Queensland’s lineup adjustments - while bold - don’t seem to shore up their vulnerabilities, particularly out wide. If the Blues win the middle-third battle early, they should gradually take control.
Verdict: Expect a tight first half, but NSW to take control late and cover the line - potentially winning the series with some breathing room.
📊 Total Points
- Historical Average (Game 3 since 2011): 36.6 points
- 2025 Series Average (Games 1 & 2): 37 points
- Game 3 Total Points Line: 42.5
Despite the low-scoring tendencies historically, the flair shown in this series suggests the over may be worth a look - especially if fatigue sets in late.
✅ New South Wales Picks
- Best Bet - Latrell Mitchell:
Latrell hasn’t lost his ability to break games open with raw power and flair. He’s dangerous in isolation plays and thrives on big moments- perfect for Origin deciders. With Lomax drawing defenders and Crichton attracting attention on the opposite edge, Mitchell will find space to strike.
✅ Queensland Picks
- Best Bet - Valentine Holmes:
Holmes is one of Origin’s most prolific try scorers and looks due for a big performance. With 4 Game 3 tries in his career, he’s a proven finisher and loves the big stage. Look for him to benefit from broken play and any early attacking sets off NSW mistakes.
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📋 Team Lineups
New South Wales
- Dylan Edwards
- Brian To’o
- Stephen Crichton
- Latrell Mitchell
- Zac Lomax
- Jarome Luai
- Nathan Cleary
- Max King
- Reece Robson
- Payne Haas
- Liam Martin
- Angus Crichton
- Isaah Yeo
Interchange: Connor Watson, Spencer Leniu, Young, Stefano Utoikamanu
Reserves: Jacob Kiraz (18th man), Lindsay Smith, Bradman Best
Queensland
- Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
- Xavier Coates
- Robert Toia
- Gehamat Shibasaki
- Valentine Holmes
- Cameron Munster
- Tom Dearden
- Josh Papali’i
- Harry Grant
- Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
- Reuben Cotter
- Kurt Capewell
- Trent Loiero
Interchange: Kurt Mann, Lindsay Collins, Patrick Carrigan, Jeremiah Nanai
Reserves: Reece Walsh (18th man), Jermaine Hopgood, Josh Kerr
🎯 Final Word
This series has been unpredictable, with swings in momentum, controversial selections, and emerging stars. But for Game 3, the Blues look better on paper, have home advantage, and are starting to gel at the right time. The Maroons are never easy to beat, but unless they pull off another ambush, expect NSW to finish strong and lift the shield.
Tip: NSW Blues to Win
Try Scorer: Valentine Holmes
📆 Full Series Schedule
- Game I: May 28 – Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane ✅
- Game II: June 18 – Optus Stadium, Perth ✅
- Game III: July 9 – Accor Stadium, Sydney
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