📍 UFC APEX, Las Vegas
🗓️ Saturday, May 17 4:00 PM ET / 1:00 PM PT

No belts, no problem. This weekend’s Fight Night card delivers action from top to bottom, with a generational passing-of-the-torch bout at the top and pure carnage littered across the main card. Whether you’re chasing value on a rising prospect or leaning into the chaos of light heavyweight, we’ve lined up the best betting angles from every matchup.

🔥 Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

Welterweight – 5 Rounds

Gilbert Burns is no stranger to the spotlight, but the 38-year-old veteran now finds himself in the unfamiliar role of underdog. Once feared for his BJJ and knockout power, "Durinho" has slowed noticeably in recent outings, dropping three straight to top competition. Enter Michael Morales - undefeated at 17-0, rangy, precise, and oozing with composure. With an 8-inch reach advantage and sharp striking fundamentals, Morales is poised to make this his breakout moment. Unless Burns can drag him into deep water or pull off a grappling scramble, this looks like the Ecuadorian’s fight to lose.

• ✅ Winner: Michael Morales @ $1.13
• ✅ Total Rounds: Under 4.5 @ $1.56
• ✅ Fight to Go the Distance: No @ $1.51

⚔️ Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig

Light Heavyweight – 3 Rounds

Paul Craig has made a career out of snatching improbable submissions off his back — but that trick’s wearing thin. At 1–5 in his last six and fresh off another loss, the durability issues are piling up. Rodolfo Bellato brings the exact wrong tools for Craig to deal with: youth, forward pressure, and knockout power. If Craig can’t initiate grappling early, Bellato’s aggression should lead to a violent finish in the opening minutes.

• ✅ Winner: Rodolfo Bellato @ $1.19
• ✅ Total Rounds: Under 1.5 @ $1.74
• ✅ Fight to Go the Distance: No @ $1.21

💨 Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos

Lightweight – 3 Rounds

Don’t let the betting line fool you - Sodiq Yusuff might be the sharpest underdog on the card. While Santos enters undefeated in the UFC, his performances have left room for doubt, especially a recent split-decision win most felt he lost. Yusuff, meanwhile, has gone the distance with killers like Edson Barboza and Arnold Allen, showcasing clean shot selection and strong composure. If he stays out of danger early, he should be able to piece Santos up and coast to a decision.

• ✅ Winner: Sodiq Yusuff @ $2.16
• ✅ Total Rounds: Over 2.5 @ $1.45
• ✅ Fight to Go the Distance: Yes @ $1.47

🧠 Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Middleweight – 3 Rounds

Ruziboev is violence incarnate — spinning attacks, wild knees, and 30+ career finishes. Stoltzfus is more of a grinder, but he’s been overwhelmed before and tends to struggle against explosive openers. Expect Ruziboev to open fast and hard, and if he connects clean, Stoltzfus likely won’t see the second round. This is your early finish anchor.

• ✅ Winner: Nursulton Ruziboev @ $1.35
• ✅ Total Rounds: Under 1.5 @ $1.72
• ✅ Fight to Go the Distance: No @ $1.27

💣 Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa

Featherweight – 3 Rounds

Erosa and Costa both bring heat and zero regard for their own safety. Erosa has been knocked out more than once trying to go for the kill, and Costa isn’t much more conservative. This one screams first-round chaos, with Costa’s faster hands and crisper timing giving him a slight edge in the madness.

• ✅ Winner: Melquizael Costa @ $1.52
• ✅ Total Rounds: Under 1.5 @ $2.23
• ✅ Fight to Go the Distance: No @ $1.50

⚒️ Prelim Picks – Quickfire Tips

💥 Gabe Green vs Matheus Camilo

Camilo’s cleaner boxing should win rounds, but Green’s chin likely keeps it alive.

• ✅ Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance - Yes @ $2.34

🧱 Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises

Moises has the edge on the mat - if he finds Gordon’s back, it’s over.

• ✅ Best Bet: Winner - Thiago Moises @ $2.02

🔄 Yadier DelValle vs Connor Matthews

DelValle’s athleticism and pressure could overwhelm early.

• ✅ Best Bet: Total Rounds - Under 2.5 @ $1.87

💃 Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa

Lisboa’s clinch game and physicality should shut down the grappler’s entries.

• ✅ Best Bet: Winner - Tainara Lisboa @ $2.31

🧨 Denise Gomes vs Elise Reed

Gomes goes hard early, and Reed tends to fold under pressure.

• ✅ Best Bet: Total Rounds - Under 2.5 @ $2.33

🌪️ Hyun Sung Park vs Carlos Hernandez

Technical grappling battle incoming - expect full 15.

• ✅ Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance - Yes @ $1.48

🧊 Tecia Pennington (Torres) vs Luana Pinheiro

Torres’ volume and cardio should wear out a fading Pinheiro.

• ✅ Best Bet: Total Rounds - Over 2.5 @ $1.22

🔗 Parlay of the Night 🔗

Looking for a finish-heavy multi with real juice? Lock these in:

• ✅ Ruziboev vs Stoltzfus - Under 1.5 Rounds
• ✅ Bellato vs Craig - Fight Doesn’t Go Distance
• ✅ Denise Gomes - Total Rounds Under 2.5
• ✅ Michael Morales - To Win

💸 Odds: $5.59
🎯 $50 = $279.50 return

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💥 Odds locked. Parlay built. Finishers primed.
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Odds are accurate as of 7 am Saturday, 17 May 2025 (UTC)